What if the Black Death Never Occurred

The Black Death was a wide pandemic event that occurred from 1346–1353 in the Old World, affecting primarily Asia and Europe. It is estimated to have killed more than 30% of Europe's population, while also having a devastating impact on Asian cultures. It is one of the most devastating pandemics in human history and fundamentally changed the course of human events due to the high death rates in many countries and regions. It also remained in societies, reoccurring frequently between the 14-20th centuries in different regions, as the plague never completely died. The effects of the Black Death are still felt today, as places had to evolve to much lower populations.

The World Before the Black Death

Prior to the Black Death, Europe had been facing a social and economic recovery. The population was growing rapidly, having gone from 38 to 74 million people in about 300 years. Learning and economies were beginning to thrive, with the diminished threat of Viking and other raids making commerce active across the continent. In Asia, the Mongols had invaded but trade was beginning to thrive under the Pax-Mongolica. This revived caravan routes and economies from China to the Near East, where the khanates, or Mongol successor states, thrived.

In effect, the Old World was becoming more integrated as it had recovered and began to thrive to the changes initiated by the Mongol invasions. Connections again spanned the whole Old World and the Silk Road achieve a peak level of trade activity. Populations were increasing in many parts of the Old World.

Different Impacts of the Black Death

The Black Death had substantially different impact on populations and exacerbated social change in many regions. In Western Europe, where populations were generally higher prior to the Black Death, the reduction of population made the remaining peasants and workers better able to negotiate higher wages. Revolts and rebellions occurred after the plague, but it uliatemly helped lead to major social changes. It also led to the death of some of the nobility. Law changes to inheritance, allowing women in particular to inherit, led to gradual gender changes. Greater power to serfs as their wages went up also helped, in the long-term, to finally finish serfdom in Western Europe. In effect, the Black Death helped to liberate societies as more power was given to peasants and laborers.

In Eastern Europe, it had the opposite effect of strengthening serfdom. In this case, population densities were much lower, thus revolts that followed the Black Death were less common. Upper classes simply reinforced their power through laws that tied workers to land and limited their wages and power. Revolts by the peasants only became a major problem in the 16th through the 19th centuries, where only during the 1800s was serfdom removed in Eastern Europe.

While two different types of European economic and political systems began to emerge after the Black Death, in the Middle East a different outcome occurred. First, cities that were very populated, such as Cairo and Mosul, diminished greatly in population, leading to a de-urbanization in the Near East that took a long time to recover from. In fact, it was not until the 20th century that some cities and regions in the Middle East reached their Medieval population levels. In east Asia, rebellions eventually broke out against the Mogul ruling dynasty in China (Yüan dynasty). This was aggravated by the plague, where ultimately China regained its independence.

In India, the Delhi Sultanate collapsed soon after the plague, suggesting the uproar caused may have catalyzed this collapse. In Russia, the Golden Horde of the Mongols diminished in power, although it did rise briefly again in the late 1300s. In effect, it also allowed a long-term weakening that eventually allowed Russian-based dynasties to arise that eventually led to the succession of the Romanov dynasty to rule Russia.

Key social changes included an increased understanding of quarantine and its importance in medicine. This now began to be a common practice after the rise of the Black Death plague. Genetic diversity may have also diminished in parts of Asia and Europe, where it could have helped surviving populations develop better immunity (through genetic adaptation).

Possible Scenarios Alternative Scenarios

Politically, the collapse of the great Mongol Empire and states is the most obvious result. Other states, such as the Byzantine Empire, could have been weakened and ultimately collapsed due to the Black Death. Thus, one possibility is that the Mongol states could have continued to rule longer, perhaps allowing them to retain great power in many regions. Politically, this could have shaped Russia and China, in particular, differently, where Mongol rulers could have ruled longer and may have more significantly changed the political and social order in those societies. In the Middle East, the presence of the Mongol states and Byzantine Empire could have resulted in making it harder for Turkic groups to migrate and establish power in the region. The Ottoman Empire may have been one of the beneficiaries of the Black Death, which could have meant that they may not been as significant in Middle East affairs otherwise.